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SFM's NBA Playoff Preview!

This column is dedicated to all you so-called basketball fans who complain that the NBA is not worth watching until the playoffs begin. Well, wake up, buckle up and listen up; the playoffs start today and will go on until Mel Kiper stops talking about the NFL Draft or OJ finds the real killers. What follows is a first round preview:

Starting in Western Conference, we get the top-seeded and defending champion San Antonio Spurs against the Sacramento Kings. This is a great first-round opponent for the Spurs because everyone will be talking about Ron Artest, which will allow San Antonio to complain about not getting the respect it deserves. On the other hand the Kings are 26-14 since they acquired Artest, and while the Spurs took two of three in the regular season series, the wins came prior to Artest's arrival. Still, I am going with San Antonio because of experience and talent. Quick question, who has more technical fouls this season, Tim Duncan or Ron Artest? Answer, Duncan tied for eighth place in the league with nine T's. Artest isn't even in the top 50, although three of his teammates are. Spurs in five.

For star power, the best first round matchup features the Suns against the Lakers. The Suns averaged 106 points in the four regular season meetings, winning three, but Kobe Bryant put up nearly 43 per outing against Phoenix. The Suns are the most fun team to watch because nobody in the gym knows who Steve Nash is going to pass to, not even Nash himself, but you can bet the guy who eventually gets the ball will have a good look at the basket. I would not expect a sweep, Kobe is good for one or two wins by himself, but, unfortunately, one of the most entertaining series will be over all too soon. My favorite Steve Nash story dates back to his recruitment at Santa Clara as recounted in a Sports Illustrated article I read long before there was SI.com. Santa Clara's head coach recalled walking by his assistants' office as they laughed over and over while watching, rewinding, and rewatching a tape of Nash in high school. I am paraphrasing, but the assistants said, "You have to see this kid from Canada. He makes defensive players fall down." Suns in six.

Lots of surprises in the 3-6 matchup: the Los Angeles Clippers are in the playoffs for the first time since 1996-97, they are the six seed, and they have home court advantage because their record (47-35) is better than the third-seeded Denver Nuggets' (44-38). Yes, the Clippers. So if they have the better record, and they get home-court advantage, why are they the six seed? I am sure there is an explanation that makes perfect sense in a sports world where the Bowl Championship Series determines the national champion in college football, but I am guessing it's just a typo. Or, more likely, an error in the NBA playoff software because the guy who wrote the program figured it would be a waste of time to write code that allowed for the possibility that the Clippers could win more than 45 games. Until this year, that would have been a logical thought process. Here's another surprise: Clips in six.

I've dubbed the final first-round Western Conference series the Battle of the Scruffy European Giants as 7-foot Dirk Nowitzki of Germany leads the fourth-seeded Dallas Mavericks against 7-foot Spaniard Pau Gasol's fifth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Dallas ranked third in point differential (+6.1) this season while Memphis led the league in team defense (88.5 ppg), so it's going to be a matter of which team can impose its will blah, blah, blah. Forget basketball, this is far more interesting as a cultural debate. Which do you prefer, beer or sangria? Oktoberfest or bullfights? Beethoven, Mozart and Wagner or Picasso, Cervantes, and El Greco? Steffi Graf or Aranxta Sanchez Vicario? Adolf Hitler or Generalissimo Francisco Franco? (What, you don't have a favorite fascist?) Okay I'll let you take a pass on that last one, but I think you can see why these 4-5 series are so tough to handicap. It's pretty close, but the precision German engineering that gave us Porsche and Mercedes Benz beats the admirable and noteworthy yet less productive Spanish tradition of the siesta. Mavericks in five.

Moving to the East, please note that all the bottom four seeds finished with worse records than Sacramento, the eighth seed in the West. Milwaukee couldn't even manage a .500 record (40-42), and for this, they get the punishment of playing the Pistons, who fell far short of the record-setting season some had predicted but still dominated the East with a 64-18 mark, 12 games ahead of second-place Miami. My most recent thoughts about the Bucks are that they have a nice 1-2 scoring punch in Ray Allen and Glenn Robinson, and if they can get consistent production out of Vin Baker, they could go a long way in the postseason. Wait a minute, none of those guys have been in Milwaukee since 2003? Hmm, it seems I haven't thought about the Milwaukee Bucks for quite some time. How about Paul Mokeski? Is he still getting quality minutes in a reserve role? Pistons in four.

The Baby Bulls took a few baby steps backward this year, falling from a four seed to a seven, but won 12 of their last 14 to finish an even 41-41, four games worse than last season. Chicago beat Miami last week to clinch a playoff berth, but Shaquille O'Neal and Dwyane Wade played only 20 minutes each for the Heat, who clinched more than a month ago. The Heat won the two earlier meetings by a total of four points, but the playoffs are a different story for Shaq. Chicago's heaviest player, Michael Sweetney, is listed at 280 pounds, or 45 pounds less than Shaq's listed weight of 325, a weight Shaq last saw three nicknames ago. I hope that he gets asked about Chicago's 7-1 rookie Luke Schenscher, just so we can hear Shaq try to do an Australian accent. Heat in five.

Like the Bulls, the New Jersey Nets closed out the season in impressive fashion, including a 14-game win streak that ended in early April as they coasted down the stretch. Unlike Chicago, New Jersey has experience to match their talent. The nucleus (Jason Kidd, Richard Jefferson, Jason Collins of the team) that lost in the finals in 2003 is still intact, and the addition of Vince Carter makes them look very strong. So why do I have the urge to pick against them? Probably because Lawrence Frank still looks like Doogie Howser. Indiana came around late once Jermaine O'Neal got healthy, and they got rid of the psychological baggage known as Ron Artest. This is a close call, what the heck, let's make it the upset special (5's over 4's don't count). Pacers in seven.

Saving the best for last, you know I am going to pick the Wizards, but I have legitimate reasons to go with my emotions. Start with experience. This is Cleveland's first trip to the playoffs since 1998, which was also Zydrunas Ilgauskas' rookie year. Washington took Chicago out in seven games in the first round last year. Also Eddie Jordan gets the coaching nod over Cleveland's rookie coach, Mike Brown. Not a huge advantage for the Wiz, but I'll take it. Reason number 2, multiple scoring threats. The Cavs are a one-man show, and, granted, LeBron is the guy you want if you only have one guy, but the Washington has three guys (Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison) who can get 30+ points, and all three can shoot the three. The only Cavalier to score more than 30 besides James was Larry Hughes, who had 37 in one game back in November. Health looks to be an edge for Washington also. Hughes missed more than half the season with a hand injury and has missed more than 20 games for three straight seasons; also LeBron has a sore ankle. The fourth factor is confidence. Washington beat Cleveland in three out of four games this season by an average of nearly 11 points. In fact, they have beaten all of the league's elite teams except Miami.

Finally, the Wizards have a reputation for playing uptempo and lacking toughness, but the acquisition of Caron Butler made that a misconception. Butler thrives on physical play. In a game against the Kings, he got a gash in his head would need six stitches, but after they stopped the bleeding, he shot free throws before getting sewn up. Against Detroit the other night, Wizards TV analyst Phil Chenier chuckled as he described Butler clearing space in the lane for an offensive rebound. This is the kind of player who makes a difference in the playoffs. Wizards in seven.

-SFM-


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